wiki:GroupActivities/CodeAvalaibilityPublication/ORCHIDEE_3_r7267

ORCHIDEE_3_r7267

This version of ORCHIDEE has been used in

  • Global Carbon Budget 2021 by Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, et al., Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, ​https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022.

Abstract Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr−1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.8 % (4.2 % to 5.4 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at ​https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

  • Global Carbon Budget 2022 by Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, et al., Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, ​https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022.

Abstract Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9  ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at ​https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

  • Projected changes in land carbon store over the 21st century: what contributions from land-use change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition? by Jaime Andres Riano Sanchez, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, submitted to ESD

Abstract Earth System Models (ESM) represent the time evolution of the biophysical (energy, water cycles) and biogeochemical (carbon cycle) components of the Earth. When used for near-future projections in the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), they use as forcings the evolution of greenhouse gas and other pollutant concentrations and land-use changes simulated by an ensemble of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) for a combination of socio-economic pathways and mitigation targets (SSPs). More precisely, only one IAM output is used as representative of a single SSP while the inter-IAM spread is large for ammonia emissions and land-use changes, for instance. This makes the comparison of key ESM diagnostics among SSPs significantly noisy, without the capacity of disentangling SSP-driven and IAM-driven factors. In this paper, we quantify the projected change in land carbon store (CLCS) for the different SSPs with an advanced version of a land surface model embedded into IPSL-CM6 ESM. Through a set of land-only factorial simulations, we specifically aim at estimating the CLCS uncertainties associated with land-use change and nitrogen deposition trajectories. We showed that the spread of the simulated change in global land carbon store induced by the uncertainty on land-use changes is slightly larger than the one associated with the uncertainty on atmospheric CO2. Globally, uncertainty associated with N depositions is responsible for a spread in CLCS lower by a factor three, than the one driven by atmospheric CO2 or land-use changes. Our study calls for making available additional IAM scenarios for each SSP to be used in the next CMIP exercise, in order to specifically assess the IAM-related uncertainty impacts on the carbon cycle and the climate system.

Code access

Metadata

DOI 10.14768/9af22472-c438-41d7-815e-09d629e55cf8
Creator Nicolas Vuichard
Affiliation Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
Title ORCHIDEE_3 revision 7267
Publisher Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL)
PublicationYear 2023
ResourceType Software
Rights This software is distributed under the CeCILL license
rightsURI ​http://www.cecill.info/
Subject Land surface model
DataManager Karim Ramage (IPSL)
DataCurator Josefine Ghattas (IPSL)
ContactPerson Nicolas Vuichard (LSCE)
FundingReference EU-FP7 ERACLIM-2 project, EU-H2020 CRESCENDO project and EU-H2020 ESM2025 project
Last modified 8 months ago Last modified on 2023-10-19T09:18:56+02:00